Personal Finance, Bargains/Deals and My Misc Ramblings
This has been a question that comes into my mind. If you think about it, the last housing boom was fueled by the laws of supply and demand. There are more buyers than homes for sale thus prices were inflated because buyers where outbidding each other.
Now that we are in a housing slump, not only that there are more inventories in the market but also there are more homes that are going on foreclosures. Because of these, previous homeowners are now entering or re-entering the rental market. According to Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University and editor of the forthcoming book ”Revisiting Rental Housing: Policies, Programs, and Priorities,”
“All those owners are now becoming renters, and Economics 101 goes into effect. If you have high demand and a restrained supply the only result is higher prices. In the near term, you will also see rents go up. People, who in the past could qualify for homeownership, will no longer have access to those sub-prime mortgage products and now will become renters.”
Here in Southern California, this theory could be a reality. The average rent for a two bedroom apartment in Los Angeles County is already at $1,500. Because high median home prices command high monthly payments, most families won’t be able to afford a home if sub-prime mortgages are no longer available. With a growing population and unaffordable housing prices, more people would be relying on renting a home.
Again, not all parts of Southern California face high rents. Just look at the situation in the Inland Empire. Although a lot of apartments have been converted into a condominium, there are more apartment complexes that were built the past couple of years, thus, maintaining a stable monthly rent.
How about your area? Are the rents affected by the current housing slump and foreclosures? Share us your thoughts!
Jay Muntz
November 4th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
The demand side got out of control during the housing boom. This is why it was a housing bubble. The result is that too many homes got built. The result of this overbuilding will be oversupply of houses for sale AND for rent.
This might not hold true for apartment buildings (many converted to condos during the boom, reducing the amount available to rent now). However the total glut of townhouses and/or detached houses for rent means some apartment renters will choose to rent houses instead.
Bottom line: there’s a glut of dwellings. Buying and renting are both going to get cheaper. I see this in my area (Washington, DC) and in most other places.
Just my two cents.
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Paul S.
November 15th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
I’m sure it’s all more complicated than I’m thinking, but you have to ask what happens to the house that is foreclosed. Is it being bought by an investor and turned into a rental property? In which case it might just be a wash, a persons house is foreclosed and moves into the renting market, and their house is turned into a rental unit. Demand +1 Supply +1
KRG
November 18th, 2007 at 11:16 am
It will only be a wash if the investors buy those foreclose homes and someone rented it. With the median monthly payment of $3,000-$4,000 PITI per month (assuming 20%) down, those investors would have to have a monthly rent matching their mortgage payment. Here in Southern California, the median rent for a three bedroom home is aroung $1500 to $2000. Why would you rent at $3,000 if you can find one at half that price. And if there are no renters, those investors would end up foreclosing too because of too much negative cash flow.